The top 2 this weekend will remain unchanged as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary look set to repeat at the top. After a colossal $191M 5-day opening - the biggest debut of 2026 so far, the Illumination sequel is tracking somewhere in the $60-70M range for its sophomore frame. That would put the domestic total well past $300M by Sunday night. The question isn't whether Mario holds #1, it's whether the drop lands closer to the first film's stellar -37% or something steeper. Weekday holds have been encouraging (eg. a $16.8M Monday), but it'll still end the week about 20-22M behind the original. Every day besides opening day has been behind (although not by a huge amount) the first movie. The "second Mario" novelty factor may not carry quite as far as the original's cultural-event status did in 2023. Right now, we're predicting it'll end up 50-100M behind the $575M domestic total of the first - but this weekend will be telling.
Project Hail Mary is set to continue its remarkable run. Ryan Gosling's sci-fi adaptation has now crossed $230 domestic, overtaking Interstellar's domestic total. It should add another $20M this frame for a running total of over $250M. It's still tracking between Dune: Part Two and Oppenheimer, and we're anticipating it ends up closer to Oppenheimer's $320M than Dune's 280M when all is said and done. The legs here have been genuinely impressive and with no real competition this week, there's no reason to expect anything different now. This is the kind of movie that plays through April and into May.
The biggest new wide release is You, Me & Tuscany, Universal's rom-com pairing Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page. Tracking has been all over the map, and this will be a test of Halle Bailey' Star power. At this point, anything over $10M would be a solid result (although definitely not a guarantee) on an $18M budget, and the real story will be word of mouth and legs moving forward.
Zendaya and Robert Pattinson's The Drama should hold decently in its second frame after a $14.4M debut. A24 counter-programming against Mario worked and the word of mouth is skewing positive here. The aim would be a sub 50% drop in the $7–9M range. After strong weekdays, the upper end feels doable. Total should be pushing $30M by Sunday and we expect it to track closely with A24 and Zendaya's Challengers, which ended up at 50M.
Hoppers should round out the top 5, with a stabilization after Mario headed towards a $165-170M final.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie repeated at #1 with an estimated $69 million, dropping 48% from last weekend’s $131.7 million 3-day debut. That’s a steeper second-weekend decline than its predecessor (The Super Mario Bros. Movie fell 37% to $92.4 million in its sophomore frame), but at $308 million, this is still a strong result, even if it’s falling a little behind the original’s $353 million at the same point. A $450 million total should still be safe for the film. $500 million is a little tougher — we’ll have to see how it stabilizes in the next few weeks.
Project Hail Mary stuck at #2 with $24.6 million, dropping just 23% from last weekend. For context, a fourth-weekend drop under 25% for a Sci-Fi wide release is borderline unheard of outside of holiday corridors. With that hold, it cruises to $256.7 million domestic with a 3.19x multiplier and counting. Our prediction model spotted its breakout and has been predicting a $296–$322 million finish ever since the second weekend hold, and now it looks like $300 million is locked. It’s also broken away from Dune: Part Two and has almost caught Oppenheimer in our 3-way comparison, suggesting it could start to challenge that film’s $322M total.
The Drama landed at #3 with $8.7 million in its second weekend, a very strong 39% drop that signals good audience retention and word of mouth. The comedy-drama has grossed $30.8 million through 10 days and is tracking ahead of Challengers, which ended its run at $50 million. If The Drama can leg out we could see closer to $60 million. Whether it gets there or it “merely” matches Challengers, this is a great result.
You, Me & Tuscany debuted at #4 with $8 million from 3,151 theaters. The Halle Bailey & Regé-Jean Page rom-com earned an A- CinemaScore and a 94% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, suggesting strong date-night appeal even as critics were more mixed (69% Tomatometer). The opening is in line with mid-tier original rom-coms, if a little soft compared to expectations, but the audience reception gives it a real shot at leggy weekday holds through April. Let’s see if that materializes here.
Hoppers bounced back after Mario’s opening, down just 30% at #5 with $4.1 million, pushing its domestic total to $157 million in its sixth weekend. The animated hit should find its way to $170 million, comfortably larger than Elemental’s $154 million and a great result for a Pixar original in this day and age.
The weekend’s critical darling was Exit 8, Genki Kawamura’s live-action adaptation of the viral Japanese horror game, which opened to $1.4 million in just 495 theaters with a solid $2,837 per-screen average for NEON. With a 95% Certified Fresh score making it the highest-rated video game adaptation in Rotten Tomatoes history, it could hold up well and broaden its audience in the weeks ahead.