The Devil Wears Prada 2 is locked for #1 this weekend, with our model projecting an $80–100M opening. Reuniting Streep, Hathaway, and Blunt 20 years after the 2006 original’s $124.7M domestic run, the film has the long-gap-reunion ingredients that turned Top Gun: Maverick into a cultural moment ($126M opening on the way to over $700M domestic), Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($111M finaling at $294M domestic), and to a much lesser extent, Freakier Friday ($29M and $94M final).
20th Century/Disney is going wide on roughly 4,000 theaters with day-and-date IMAX, betting on the built-in audience showing up in huge numbers. And they should feel pretty good about that bet: we have the film tracking for $80M+ this weekend, with a shot at inching closer to $90M+, which would triple the original’s debut way back in 2006. For awhile, tracking was leaning closer to $100M+, but has come back down somewhat after the big upfront fan presales. Still, $80M+ is a great result here and with good reviews and early audience reactions, plus a Mother’s Day boost on weekend two, expect this one to leg out to at least $250M domestically with a very real chance at $300M.
Michael’s first hold is the more interesting question. The Jackson biopic blew past every tracking range with $97.2M opening and sits at $116M through Tuesday. Comps like Bohemian Rhapsody dropped -39% in its sophomore frame; Straight Outta Compton fell -56%; Elvis was -41%. Does Michael play like these, or does it behave more like a front-loaded fan-driven event film? With DWP2 coming for the same audience on top of that, anything under a 60% drop should feel pretty good here. If it can get under 50%, then we’re seeing word of mouth spreading and looking at a nice leggy run into May. Expect around $45M and ~$170M or so by Sunday, also on its way to somewhere between $250–$300M — almost exactly what our model is predicting going into the weekend.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie heads into its fifth frame at just over $390M, $110M behind The Super Mario Bros. Movie at the equivalent point in 2023. Mario Bros’ fifth weekend was $18.6M (-55%); Galaxy comes off a -44% week 4 at $20.6M and likely drops another 40% to around $12M, putting the cume over $400M by Sunday. With DWP2 pulling adults rather than families, there’s no real fragmentation risk for Galaxy this weekend. A $425–435M domestic finish remains the projection. Worldwide is closing in on $1 billion and should pass $900M this weekend.
Project Hail Mary crosses $315M this weekend in its seventh frame. After last weekend’s -37% hold to $12.8M and around $310M headed into the weekend, the film only needs another week or two to cross Oppenheimer’s $322M lifetime as it heads towards $340M+ and $700M worldwide.
Three other wide releases open on the much smaller side. Angel Studios’ Animal Farm, Neon’s Hokum, a Boots Riley follow-up to Sorry to Bother You, and finally, Sony’s That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime the Movie — all headed for low-to-mid single digits.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 opened to an estimated $77 million on 4,150 theaters, taking #1 but landing at the low end of a tracking range that had stretched as high as $100M earlier in the week. The 20-year reunion of Streep, Hathaway, and Blunt did roughly two-thirds the opening of the original’s lifetime ($124.7M) in a single weekend, which is a great result.
However, considering that this had early potential to get close to $100M, it’s also clear that the movie played more pre-sales heavy and will need to try and bring in more casual audiences in the weeks ahead. It couldn’t quite hit the heights of Top Gun: Maverick ($126M opening) or Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($111M opening), but this is well above the Freakier Friday tier ($29M opening) and a genuine breakout sequel that, with decent audience reactions (77% RT, 87% Audience, B+ CinemaScore) should coast through to $250M+ domestically, more than doubling the original. We’ll see if Mothers Day next weekend can give it a strong second weekend hold. Worldwide, it was a $230M+ opening, a fantastic result that should see a worldwide total of $600M (we’ll update the range after next weekend’s hold).
Michael’s second-frame hold was rock solid and much better than expected. After blowing past tracking with a record-shattering $97.2M opening, the Antoine Fuqua biopic dropped just -44% to $54M in week two, a hold that lands closer to Bohemian Rhapsody’s -40% and Elvis’s -41%. We had said anything under 60% would be a good result, but this came in closer to 40%. That means the fan-driven, front-loaded event fears didn’t materialize and instead is playing like a regular biopic with great audience reception — which means it’s now set up for a leggy run.
Through 10 days the Jackson biopic sits at $183.8M domestic and will cruise past Bohemian Rhapsody’s $216M by the end of next weekend. Our prediction model now projects a $284M domestic final, but it could very easily challenge $300M. Alongside The Devil Wears Prada 2, it’s great seeing two films breakout on back-to-back weekends to kick off the summer.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie crossed $400M in its fifth frame at #3, adding $12.1M (-41%) to push the cume to $402.7M. That’s a big milestone and a great result, but it’s worth noting the original sat at $516M through the same point in 2023 and Galaxy is now $113M back. A $425–435M finish is still the call as worldwide closes in on $925M, with the $1B target looking softer week by week. It’s in range still, but not by much.
Project Hail Mary took #4 with $8.55M (-33%) in week seven, pushing its cume to $318.3M and landing just $4M shy of Oppenheimer’s $322M lifetime — the comp we’ve been benchmarking against for two months. Next weekend it crosses Oppenheimer. Our model has been forecasting $296–$322M since March and PHM has consistently outperformed it; a $345–355M domestic finish is the new call, and $700M is still the target. For a hard sci-fi $200M production with no franchise scaffolding, this remains the run of the year.
Hokum opened to $6.4M on 1,885 theaters at #5, a strong number for Damian McCarthy’s haunted-house horror follow-up to Oddity (which Neon platformed to $3.6M lifetime in 2024). 86% RT and 82% Audience put it in the upper tier of indie horror this year — closer to A24’s Talk to Me ($10M opening, $48M domestic) than to a typical mid-budget genre play. A $20–25M domestic finish is in view, with cult-pickup legs from the McCarthy / Adam Scott combination.
Animal Farm landed at #6 with $3.4M from 2,600 theaters, a brutal result for Angel Studios coming off The King of Kings’ $60M run earlier this year. Expect it to end at around $10M.
The slate’s smaller openers all bombed. Deep Water (Lionsgate) managed $2.15M from 1,675 theaters, RZA’s One Spoon of Chocolate (A24) drew $574K from 636 theaters on a $903 PTA, and Crunchyroll’s That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime: Tears of the Azure Sea pulled $1M from 837 theaters.
Holdovers Lee Cronin’s The Mummy (-59% to $2.23M, $27.4M cume) and The Drama (-65% to $908K, $46.9M cume) both head into the Mother’s Day frame on fumes; Mummy wraps near $30M, The Drama around $50M. You, Me & Tuscany and Mother Mary both posted -82–83% drops, confirming the heavy direct competition from DWP2.