Even just a month ago, The Mandalorian & Grogu was expected to hold #1 by default and by a significant margin at that, especially after opening more or less at expectations at $82M last weekend ($98M 4-day). That now seems like an impossibility thanks to the looming horror hit in A24’s Backrooms that is poised to break records for the studio as it shoots for over $50M this weekend.
Backrooms
A few months ago, $50M would have been a great final domestic total for the Kane Parsons directed movie, but now feels increasingly likely to be the opening weekend floor. For a movie that started as a short YouTube video inspired by a 4Chan liminal spaces post, that’s genuinely monumental and sends a very clear message to Hollywood: audiences want young, fresh talent telling new stories instead of solely relying on legacy sequels. The 20 year-old is about to shatter A24’s opening weekend record, currently held by Civil War’s $25M, which it should more than double on its way to also becoming the best grosser ever and their first movie to break $100M domestic (current record holder is Marty Supreme at $96M).
We were looking at Talk to Me as a potential comparison a few months back. Also from A24, it opened to $10.4M on its way to $48M, a total that Backrooms should pass just in its opening weekend. Weapons was a smash last year opening to $43.5M and finaling at $151.6M, but Backrooms should open bigger than even that. To be conservative and as a good reminder — anything over $25M should be considered a breakout success here, so if Backrooms “merely” ends up in the $40M–$50M range instead of closer to $60M, that’s still a huge unqualified success. Look for $60M+ this weekend, with $70M even looking possible.
The Mandalorian & Grogu
Back to Mandalorian: the Star Wars spinoff will head into its second weekend at ~$115M. Expect a bigger drop thanks to Memorial Day last weekend, probably in the 65% to 70% range. Solo: A Star Wars Story is the closest comp by every dimension, including the exact same Memorial Day launch slot, and that fell -65% in its second frame on the way to a soft 2.5x leg. A similar drop is the realistic ceiling here. It’s still tracking towards a final domestic total over $200M, unless it lands closer to a 70% drop this weekend.
Obsession
Obsession is the holdover story of the year so far. Focus Features’ psychological horror is at $67.9M through 12 days on a 3.9x multiplier, after a +30% second weekend that no horror release in recent memory has matched at that scale. Midweeks so far have been incredibly strong too, at essentially the same level as Mandalorian and actually ahead of it Wednesday — with an insane +50% jump from last Wednesday and was actually up from Discount Tuesday too.
This isn’t just a great run; it’s one for the all-time record books. Finding anything similar in this genre is incredibly hard. Sinners might be a good comparison, even if it played at a higher level from the start with a $48M opening. That one barely dropped in weekend 2 (just 6%) and ended up with 5.8x legs, which Obsession will beat even if it won’t match the domestic total (Sinners ended up at a huge $278M). This weekend Backrooms offers direct competition, which for horror is often a death sentence, but not for Obsession. Expect another incredibly strong hold over $20M as it looks set to eventually coast past $150M to become Focus Features’ highest domestic grosser of all time, a record currently held by Downton Abbey at $96M, or Coraline at $116M if you include the re-release. Obsession even has an outside shot at taking #2 away from Mandalorian this weekend, which would be a huge upset.
Michael
Michael rolls into its sixth frame with $350M domestic locked as the Japan launch aims to lift the global ceiling toward $1B. Expect another $13M or so this weekend taking it to around $342M. The Devil Wears Prada 2 is at $201.3M through 26 days, a great total, but with legs that have been below average. What could have been $250M+ is looking likely to end up around $230M or so instead.
Pressure
Focus Features’ Pressure is the adult-drama play of the weekend with Brendan Fraser, Andrew Scott with a stage-play adaptation of the 72 hours before D-Day. There’s a ton of competition with Obsession and Backrooms both overperforming and Mandalorian, Michael and DWP2 still all pulling solid numbers too. The single-digit range is looking the most likely outcome — something in the $5–9M range as it gets squeezed out of theaters by the bigger plays.
The Breadwinner
The wild card is Sony / TriStar’s The Breadwinner, Nate Bargatze’s wide-release film debut in a PG family comedy opposite Mandy Moore. This is a hard one to predict, but it could flirt with double digits if everything goes right. We’ll see what this one pulls, anything between $4M and $10M is possible.
Backrooms turned a roughly $10M horror movie into the biggest opening weekend in A24’s history at $81.5M, but the wildest story of the frame was Obsession — somehow growing again in its third weekend to become the leggiest wide release of 2026.
Backrooms
It’s hard to overstate how big this became: we were looking at a $20–25M opening just a month back, but the pace and buzz just kept exploding, more than tripling A24’s previous record (Civil War’s $25.5M in 2024) off a record $10.4M in Thursday previews and $118M worldwide. The one caution flag is a B- CinemaScore against an 89% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is par-the-course for niche A24 horror movies, but a little more worrying here since the opening weekend is anything but niche. That being said, even if it turns out front loaded, this is still an absolutely huge success for the studio. Worst case: legs are barely double the opening and the domestic total ends up around $170M. If it can hold well and do more like 2.5x, then we’re looking at $200M+, which is certainly doable.
Obsession
A surprise upset for second: Obsession actually rose another 10% to $26.4M in its third frame — making Focus Features’ $750,000 (that they acquired for $15M) thriller the first film outside of Christmas corridor since 1982 to grow in both its second and third weekends, and that was an entirely different era where movies opened smaller and lasted longer. It’s an unprecedented hold, especially against direct competition in Backrooms. It now stands at $104.8M domestic and $148M worldwide, a 6.1x multiplier through 17 days that our prediction model simply can’t bracket. $150–200M is the target now and it will easily be one of the biggest box office stories of the decade.
The Mandalorian & Grogu
A steep Memorial-Day-adjusted -69% drop (steeper than Solo) that doesn’t bode well for the flick. Star Wars’ return to theaters stands at $137.4M domestic and $246.6M worldwide through 10 days. The -69% means that $200M is no longer safe and it’ll really need to stabilize to get to that level now. We could see it walking it out in the end, but we’ll have to see how next weekend goes — there’s a lot of big movies coming in June ready to swipe away theaters, so finishing at $190M or so could be in the cards.
Michael
Michael eased just 43% to $11.7M in its sixth weekend, pushing the Michael Jackson biopic to $339.9M domestic and a massive $845M worldwide. It’s days away from becoming the second-biggest release of 2026 domestically and is a global phenomenon overseas, where international has now contributed more than $505M — and still has $1B globally in its sights.
The Breadwinner
The first of two new wide releases at the bottom of the top 10. The Breadwinner opened soft at $7.5M for Sony against a 28% Tomatometer; an A- CinemaScore says the audience that showed up liked it more than critics did.
Pressure
Focus’ WWII drama opened to $5.75M but drew the weekend’s best reception — an A CinemaScore and a 96% audience score that point to strong holds if it doesn’t get lost in the shuffle.
The Sheep Detectives
The Sheep Detectives held to $4.6M (-50%) and crossed $54.5M; a great result as it looks set to end up close to $70M. It’s films like this, plus strong holdovers like Michael, that are giving some nice depth to the box office.