Toy Story 5 cruises to a second #1; Supergirl tracking slipping; Jackass 5 eyes a franchise low

Toy Story 5 should cruise to a second #1 without breaking a sweat. Through Tuesday it’s at $200.7M domestic in just five days, just barely off from Inside Out 2 at the same point in its run. Sophomore drops for comps include -34% for IO2, -46% for Toy Story 3, -51% for Toy Story 4, and -52% for Incredibles 2. With a fifth movie, we could expect the drop to be around 50–55% here, headed to $72–$80M in its second weekend, taking it to over $300M domestically after 10 days. That would put it solidly ahead of Toy Story 3 and 4 (both around $230M at the same point), and behind Incredibles 2 and Inside Out 2, which were both around $350M at the same point. That feels about right given we expect this to ultimately final somewhere right between those two sets’ endpoints, maybe around $550M or so. Of course, if it can fall under 50% (which would not be that surprising), it would be a great sign for word of mouth and would change that trajectory, so we’ll just wait and see after the weekend. We’ll keep an eye on the worldwide total here too, but right now it feels pretty safe for $1B and the top earner of the year so far.

Supergirl never managed to build momentum, and unfortunately we’ve seen the opposite happen, as tracking has quietly slipped to a point where $50M now seems out of reach — and it could even fall below $40M. This was never going to win the weekend with Toy Story 5 overperforming, but if it ends up sub-40, that would be pretty disappointing here. The comp DC Studios won’t want to hear is The Flash, which opened to $55M in 2023 and legged a dismal 1.96x to $108M; a superhero launch in the $40Ms with average reviews (it’s at 57% right now) doesn’t often see great legs — we could assume something like 2.2–2.6x, which at a $40M opening gets Supergirl to just over $100M domestically. In our June preview we said we’d like to see something like $150M+ here, and that looks unlikely now unless word of mouth is much stronger with audiences than the critic reviews suggest. This isn’t an out-and-out failure at that level, as expectations are lower for a much smaller and less commercially successful character like this, but it’s not exactly screaming success either. Best case is to hope for an opening that still starts with a 4 and not a 3, which would probably get this to the $100M mark in the States.

Obsession simply refuses to quit. It’s at $220.1M through Tuesday, still holding around -25% day over day. If it continues that again this weekend, we’re looking at $10M or so, taking it to around $235M. $250M, unthinkable when it opened in May, is locked, and the only number left worth chasing is Sinners’ $280M domestic. That may be a touch too high for this one, but even a third of Sinners’ total would have felt hard with a $17M opening, so the fact that it’s gonna get within spitting distance is just insane. Look for worldwide to make it to $400M when all is said and done.

Jackass 5 is tracking around $10M from roughly 2,800 theaters, which would be the lowest opening in the franchise’s history, well short of Jackass Forever’s $23.2M debut in 2022. Part of that is structural: it’s billed as a send-off built partly from vault footage, not a clean original, so the buzz hasn’t really materialized. But on a $10M budget it turns a theatrical profit almost immediately, so ‘lowest opening ever’ and ‘perfectly fine for Paramount’ can both be true here — just don’t expect another one.

Disclosure Day is at $83.3M through 12 days after a steep -62% second weekend off its $44M opening. Let’s hope it can stabilize a bit this weekend and avoid a sub-50% drop, although that’s certainly not guaranteed. The B CinemaScore and middling word of mouth have set the ceiling; a third weekend around $6–8M keeps it pointed at a ~$110M finish, with legs that will end up below 3x the opening. That still counts as just fine for the film — not a proper success, but it at least avoids being labelled a bomb.