Moana
Moana opens this weekend and takes #1 without much of a fight, but the number is the story. Tracking has collapsed from a possible $100M+ opener just a month or two ago, to what now looks like something in the 50s range. That’s a huge comedown from the $139M opening of Moana 2 in November 2024 and could even open lower than the original movie from back in 2016, which did $56M on its way to $248M domestically and nearly $700M worldwide.
We’re looking at something in the $50M range, but if there’s a 4 on the front of the weekend number, it wouldn’t be surprising (although hopefully it doesn’t go as low as Snow White at $42M…). In fact, at this point, opening in the $40s is looking increasingly likely, unless walk-up business and good audience word-of-mouth can counteract those horrible reviews, currently in the 30% range. With a start like this, a $200M domestic finish is off the table, and instead Moana will be shooting to hit $150M (although if it opens on the lower end this may be a bridge too far). That’s about half of where expectations were (around $300M domestic total) before the summer began.
We said in our June long-range preview that July is heavily relying on Minions, Moana and The Odyssey hitting their high expectations to keep the month strong. With Minions opening way below the franchise average and now Moana set to open to about half of where we saw it hitting even a month ago, July is officially on rocky footing. If Moana and Minions can’t even get to our “worst-case” domestic totals of $200M, let alone $300M (which is where they needed to be for the month to feel strong), then all we can say is thank god for Spider-Man coming July 31 to at least give us a huge August.
Minions & Monsters
The rest of the top 10 in theory should see strong holds due to the bad timing of July 4th falling on last Saturday, which dampened all business on the biggest moviegoing day of the week. And while Moana offers family competition, let’s hope Minions can have a strong hold so it can claw back some of the business it needs to make a push for $200M. For that number to still be in contention, it’ll need to really bounce back big with a drop in the 30% range for $25M or so, bringing its total to $110M+. This is a hard one to judge because Moana is direct competition but last weekend was very soft due to July 4th and the Wednesday opening, so will these cancel each other out for a normal drop (45–50%), or will Minions hold well as audiences go see it casually over the summer instead of upfront? Right now, we’re gonna say it does hold on stronger, with a drop less than 40% due to the factors mentioned, but maybe we’re a bit optimistic.
Evil Dead Burn
Evil Dead Burn is the weekend’s counter-programming play, and Warner Bros. will happily scoop up the horror crowd while Moana chases families. The cleanest comp is Evil Dead Rise, which opened to $24.5M in 2023 on its way to $67M domestic (2.7x legs, not bad by horror standards) and $147M worldwide. We’d expect Burn to land in the same neighborhood — a low-to-mid-$20s opening that slots in at #2 or #3 behind Moana. Reviews are solid at 71%, so hopefully this can find good summer business beyond opening weekend and leg out well. Think of anything over $20M as a good result for Warner Bros., even if this could have become more of a breakout at $30M+. With the biggies so far underperforming, July needs mid-level movies like this to pad out the top 10 and give some good breadth.
Toy Story 5
Likewise, Toy Story 5 should have a stronger hold this weekend, even if its holds overall have been a little underwhelming. It’s going into the weekend with mid-40s holds throughout the week and a new total of $386M, meaning it will cross $400M this weekend. Expect high teens or low 20s for the weekend. With its current trajectory, $500M is not at all guaranteed and might be a little out of reach now, but it should still easily cross $450M and $1B should still be locked in — we’ll know more after this weekend.
Young Washington
Young Washington is the one holdover that actually overperformed because of July 4th. Because of this, and the fact that its subject matter relied on the holiday for a strong opening, expect it to drop harshly this weekend to under $10M. That being said, it’s still an overperformer as it shoots for $45–50M total when all is said and done — easily double where it could have landed.
Supergirl
Supergirl had a really rough -77% second weekend, and while it should be closer to 45–50% this weekend, the damage has been done. Expect it to end up around $75M domestic — that’s about half of where we wanted to see it to call it a modest success. Obviously now, it’s clearly in the bomb category for the summer.
Disney’s live-action Moana took #1 with $43M — the second-worst opening of any Disney live-action remake, on a $250M budget. Meanwhile Toy Story 5 sailed past $400M, Minions & Monsters passed $100M, Evil Dead Burn opened 44% below its predecessor, and The Invite exploded +712% in its wide expansion. The frame itself is the headline no one wants: the entire marketplace was down 38% year-over-year, against a weekend last July when Superman drove the market to $201.1M. July was supposed to be carried by three blockbusters. One just opened to $43M, one is heading for a franchise low, and the whole month is now riding on The Odyssey over-performing on Friday.
Moana
Moana opened to $43M — below the 2016 original’s $56.6M start, and less than a third of what Moana 2 did with its $139.7M bow in November 2024. Among Disney’s live-action remakes only Snow White ($42.2M) has opened lower; even Dumbo managed $45.97M back in 2019. But those were always seen on the lower end — Moana is more disappointing because of just how big it was supposed to be, considering it looked like a $100M opening weekend was likely just a month or two ago. Critics were brutal at 34%, but audiences didn’t mind it with an A- CinemaScore and a 90% audience score. Maybe this one came too soon after Moana 2, or maybe audiences are getting sick of the live-action remakes, something we’ve seen brewing for a while.
With an opening like this, Moana should struggle to get past $150M domestically unless it has really strong summer legs, although $100M should at least be safe. Expect maybe around $125M, give or take $10M on either side. The 2016 original’s $248.8M is long gone as is the huge $460M of the sequel. The worldwide opening is $95M against a confirmed $250M production cost, so it’s looking like this is another bomb for the summer and way below where this needed to be for July to be a strong month.
Minions & Monsters
A -45% hold is a good second weekend, considering the competition, although we were hoping for sub 40% to keep the $200M dream alive. Minions & Monsters is at $108.3M through 12 days, running roughly 47% behind Despicable Me 4, which finished at $361M. It’s looking like the film should pass $150M but maybe won’t get any higher than $175M, which is at least $125M from where we wanted this to be domestically. That is the lowest total in the history of the franchise by a wide margin (Despicable Me 1 was around $250M as the previous lowest). The good news: being down 50% from the franchise average (around $900M worldwide per film) is still very profitable — if it hits $450–500M on an $85M budget that’s still clearly very profitable. And Universal can just switch back to a Despicable Me movie next time to get things back on track and give the Minions a little time to breathe before the next film comes along.
Toy Story 5
The other Disney film is doing just fine. Toy Story 5 eased 39% to $18.5M and crossed $400M in 24 days — faster than Toy Story 4, which took its time to a $434M final. That $434M falls within the next two weekends, and our model has the fifth film cruising past $450M but falling short of $500M: slightly disappointing given the opening weekend that suggested $600M was even possible, but still a fantastic result and easily the best in the franchise. Worldwide is $879M, so $1B is locked and will be passed in a few weeks. Considering Moana’s fate this weekend plus the underperformance of The Mandalorian & Grogu, this is a genuine win for Disney.
Evil Dead Burn
Evil Dead Burn opened to $13.7M, down 44% from Evil Dead Rise’s $24.5M start in 2023. Reviews are strong at 72% and the B CinemaScore matches Rise exactly, so unfortunately this is one where the interest never really materialized and it came in well under our low-end prediction of $18M. It looks pretty hard to recover from this opening with such big direct competition for males coming up: The Odyssey next weekend and then Spider-Man July 31 both demanding attention and cinema screens. Because of that, we don’t see this making it past $30M or so. It should be profitable for the studio, but it’s not what July needed after Minions and Moana both opened soft too.
The Invite
The best story on the chart is at #6. Olivia Wilde’s The Invite went from 28 theaters to 1,610 and jumped +712% to $5.7M, a solid result that suggests there is genuine interest in this film — enough to justify the expansion. With a 96% critic score, an 82 Metacritic, and a 4.1 Letterboxd average, A24’s strategy of opening slowly and building word of mouth looks to be working. At $7.4M through 17 days with a theater count that only just expanded wide, the run starts now. Let’s see if it can hold its own against adult competition next weekend.
Down the chart, Young Washington gave back its breakout with a -67% sophomore drop to $6.4M and $33.1M, on the way to a $45M finish. Supergirl fell another 59% to $3.56M and $66M, and with the model landing at $70–75M, a sub-$75M finish is locked. Obsession keeps doing the opposite, off just 27% to $3.8M for $253.3M domestic and $427M worldwide in its ninth weekend — 14.7x legs, and the best hold on the board. Disclosure Day added $3.2M for $111.3M, and Backrooms took $1.5M for $194.2M and $368M worldwide, still A24’s biggest release ever. And Michael finally crossed $1B worldwide, the second film to do so this year behind Mario Galaxy — with Toy Story 5 set to follow soon.