Spider-Man: Brand New Day crosses $700 million domestic today, on day 13, with this weekend set to take it soaring above $750M on its path to $900M+. Underneath it, Warner Bros. finds out whether its original dinosaur movie can break out, while The Odyssey is set to pass $500M.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Spider-Man: Brand New Day passes $700 million domestic today, the seventh film in history to get there and the fourth Marvel Studios title after Avengers: Endgame ($858.4M), Spider-Man: No Way Home ($804.8M) and Black Panther ($700.4M). It took 13 days. The next marker is sharper: the all-time third weekend belongs to Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $90,241,673, with Avatar second at $68,490,688 and Avatar: The Way of Water third at $67,409,155. Spider-Man could wind up close to those two Avatar flicks this weekend, if it can hold closer to 50% than 60%.
Brand New Day fell -60% in weekend two to $144,254,386, which was itself the third-biggest second weekend ever. Endgame eased 57% in its third frame off a comparable base, and that is the closest structural comp available and would give us $62M for the weekend. No Way Home’s -34% third weekend had the New Year’s holiday corridor underneath it, so isn’t a usable comparison here. To clear Avatar it needs to hold at -52.5% or better, which is certainly doable, but could prove a bar a little too high to clear. Even if it settles at $62M, that would bring it to around $780M by Sunday, placing it just behind Avatar as the 5th biggest movie of all time domestically… after just three weekends.
Assuming $775M by Sunday, Brand New Day would need just ~$160M more to unseat Star Wars: The Force Awakens as the biggest movie of all time domestically. That feels basically locked at this point, barring a collapse this weekend or next, which is unlikely. $1B is still a toss-up and at this point hard to call. The fact that it’s even on the table and very much in sight is testament to just how massive this box office run is.
The End of Oak Street
The tracking on The End of Oak Street wasn’t looking great, settling in the mid-teens, but this last week or two has started to turn around in a very promising way. We’re seeing presales start to ramp up right before reviews started dropping… and once they dropped at 83%, that only increased the pacing here. We’re now seeing $20M as the floor here with an outside shot to land close to $30M. Nobody was buying a ticket to Oak Street on brand, so the only lever available in the final week was word getting out that the movie is good, and it got out. The 67 Metacritic says critics like it rather than love it, so Friday night CinemaScore is what decides whether this is a crowd pleaser or not.
The comp is Weapons, Warner Bros. own August original from last year, which opened to $43.5M and finished $151,572,492 on strong word of mouth. Oak Street is not opening that big. But it is $80M net budget at 3,400 theaters with IMAX and PLF behind it, and the composition is unusually broad for a creature movie; Hathaway is testing as a strong first choice among women, which is not the audience a dinosaur picture normally leads with.
Warner Bros. has not opened a 2026 release above $40M in seven tries, with theatrical revenue down 46% year over year, so the bar here was never a blockbuster. It is a movie that opens fine and then legs out through the rest of August. At $25M on a 3x multiplier this is a $75M domestic film with real potential at a solid international run and potential for break even. We’re seeing it right around $25M, which would put it at a very similar level to the other new opener.
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie arrives into the emptiest family lane of the summer. Moana is in week five and has dropped -47% two weekends running, down to $2.98M, while Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 are also both wrapping their runs and in the low single digits this weekend. The market is ready for another kids film and young kids love Paw Patrol. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie set the series record at $22,764,354 in 2023 and legged to $65,343,309. We’re seeing the potential for this to go a little higher and maybe approach $25M this time around.
The floor is known too. PAW Patrol: The Movie opened to $13,629,284 in 2021 and finished $40,127,371, and it did that day-and-date on Paramount+. Dino has a clean theatrical window and $25M already in the bank from 30 overseas territories, which is a stronger position than either predecessor had at this stage. We are calling $23–28M, hopefully getting this one to $70M+ domestically as a final.
The Odyssey
The Odyssey took the number two spot of 2026 on Tuesday and it is not giving it back. It sits at $472,160,345 against Toy Story 5’s $472,138,915 as of Wednesday. The Pixar sequel is adding roughly $800,000 a day in week eight; Odyssey added $5.6 million on Tuesday alone. Drops this week have been around 40%; a similar drop this weekend gets The Odyssey to $19M.
That would put Odyssey past $500 million domestic either Sunday or Monday. Its weekend drops have been -27%, -43% and -38%, so expect something similar to last weekend here as well. Our model still has it finishing around $567M on 4.6x legs. Christopher Nolan already has his highest-grossing film ever here at $1.1 billion worldwide, and $550M+ domestic is the realistic landing spot, which gets it to #19 all-time.
The Brink of War
Angel Studios puts The Brink of War into 2,000 theaters, with Jeff Daniels as Ronald Reagan and Jared Harris as Mikhail Gorbachev across one weekend at the 1986 Reykjavik summit. Boxoffice Pro is at $3–5M and that is the right neighbourhood. Angel’s distribution model front-loads hard — its audience is mobilised through the platform before release rather than discovered in the multiplex — so Friday tells you the whole story here, and the Saturday hold tells you whether anyone outside that base showed up. This should stay in the single digits; we’re seeing it at around $5M.
One Night Only
One Night Only opened to $5,508,045 and has the most interesting weekday shape on the board: +53% Monday to Tuesday, the largest bump in the top ten. Discount Tuesday inflates everyone, but nobody else moved that far. Are people discovering the film after a soft opening? If it can manage a drop in the 40s, that’s a fine hold here, although overall this still counts as a disappointment.
Down the chart. SIX: The Musical Live! opens this weekend and it’s really hard to gauge whether this is a blip or can crack $5M or so. Meanwhile, two limited releases are worth watching more than their footprints suggest. Neon opens The Wrong Girls, the Dylan Meyer stoner comedy with Kristen Stewart and Alia Shawkat, at roughly 500 locations — a platform play where the per-screen average is the number that decides whether it widens. Black Bear has The Rivals of Amziah King in 500 sites, Andrew Patterson’s follow-up to The Vast of Night, with Matthew McConaughey and a 90% Tomatometer on 52 reviews. Both are counting on reviews doing work that marketing spend will not.
Looking ahead. Next weekend, Insidious: Out of the Further opens August 21 with $20M as the floor and a shot at $30M+. Lionsgate’s Mutiny and Black Bear’s Spa Weekend follow it out the same day.
Two dinosaur movies opened five hundred thousand dollars apart and both cleared $20 million, which on almost any other August weekend would be the story. It is not the story. Spider-Man: Brand New Day posted the second-biggest third weekend in history and moved past Avatar into fourth place on the all-time domestic list, seventeen days into its run.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
We said on Wednesday that clearing Avatar’s $68,490,688 needed a hold of -52.5% or better, and we called that a bar that could prove a little too high. It was not a bar too high; it held at -51% for $70,000,000. Only Star Wars: The Force Awakens has ever posted a bigger third weekend, at $90,241,673, and that had the New Year’s holiday corridor helping it. Avengers: Endgame sits sixth on that third weekend list at $63,299,904, which is the more useful comparison here.
The shape of the weekend was all Saturday. Friday’s $19.0M jumped +54% on Saturday to $29.3M, the biggest Friday-to-Saturday move of the four films above $20M, and Sunday gave back -26%. Rentrak had 51% of K-12 schools already back in session, and that is what a back-to-school frame looks like: the Friday is shaved and the Saturday bounces higher. IMAX added $4.2M in its second weekend on the title.
The all-time list is where this turns rare. $785,831,670 through seventeen days moved it into fourth place, behind Force Awakens’ $936.7M, Endgame’s $858.3M and Spider-Man: No Way Home’s $814.8M. Avatar is the awkward entry on that list — $749,766,139 from its original 2009 run, $785.2M once the reissues are counted — and Brand New Day cleared the higher of those two figures on Sunday. With these results, it does look like topping The Force Awakens is now likely locked, sending Brand New Day on a path to becoming the highest grossing film domestically of all time.
The prediction model moved to its third and final phase this weekend. A -59.9% second weekend and a -51.5% third average to 55.7% decay, which historically means roughly 83% of the final is already banked. That gives $906.9M–$981.8M with a midpoint of $944.9M on 2.62x legs. $1 billion domestic is still inside the outer band at $1.02B, but only just — it now needs the film to outrun its own drop profile rather than match it. Worldwide is $2,021,832,000, on its way to $2.5B+. That would get it to the 3rd highest grossing film of all time worldwide, behind just Endgame and Avatar.
The Odyssey
We assumed a -40% fifth weekend on Wednesday, which would have been $19M and a $500M crossing on Monday. It dropped -27% to $23,200,000 and crossed $500M on Sunday. A fifth-weekend hold under 30% is a fantastic result and the raw total is actually the 9th biggest 5th weekend of all time. Word of mouth is strong, but this is also about IMAX continuing to stay full; it is not letting go of this one.
Worldwide is $1,290,924,000 and is only a week away from passing Deadpool & Wolverine as the biggest R-rated movie of all time. Domestically, The Dark Knight’s $533,345,358 falls inside two weeks and this still has a shot at ending up above $600M.
The worldwide number is the one that reframes the film. $1,290,924,000 makes it the second-biggest release of 2026 globally on a $250M budget. Domestic share is 39.1%, which is unusually low for a Nolan picture and says the international run has more left in it than the domestic one. Expect $1.5B here, which puts it just above Top Gun: Maverick and right around Avatar: Fire and Ash inside the top 20 of all time.
The End of Oak Street
We called $25M on Wednesday hoping that good reviews would lead to a slight breakout, but The End of Oak Street settled in at $21,000,000, at the bottom of our range. That’s not bad, it’s just that it did about what was expected of it a week ago instead of getting a bounce up higher.
The tell was the B CinemaScore and a 51% definite recommend in PostTrak say the same thing from a different direction. An 86% Tomatometer from critics is not as powerful as what looks to be only so-so word of mouth from audiences.
The economics are not alarming yet. $85M net against $26,000,000 already banked internationally off an August 12 start in France, Italy, Mexico and Belgium puts worldwide at $47,000,000 after three domestic days, with China, Japan and Germany still ahead of it. It has a shot at $50M+ domestically and should end up over $100M worldwide — if it can get close to $150M, that’s totally fine here.
PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie
We called $23–28M and a $70M finish. It opened to $20,500,000 — under our band, and the second-best opening of the franchise, behind PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie’s $22,764,354 in 2023 and well clear of the 2021 original’s $13,629,284. The A CinemaScore matches Mighty Movie and beats the first film’s A-.
The daily shape is the unusual part: $7,350,000 on Friday and $7,350,000 on Saturday, flat to the dollar, the only film in the top twenty that did not move between the two days. We were expecting a Saturday family bump but it looks like it played more like a sequel with a bigger first day and smaller increase on Saturday.
Mighty Movie legged 2.87x to $65,343,309 off a bigger start; our model has this one at $70M+, midpoint $76.0M on 3.71x legs. Those legs might be a little ambitious here, but we’ll see how it holds next weekend.
Internationally it is not close. $48,500,000 is banked across roughly thirty territories, more than double the domestic number, for $69,000,000 worldwide, and should coast past $100M and up to $150M+.
Katseye: Wild Hearts
Trafalgar’s documentary on the Los Angeles girl group took $3,600,000 across five days on 724 screens for a $4,972 average and fifth place. Event releases of this shape front-load hard and this one is no exception — $2,200,000 of it landed on Friday alone. The 89% audience score is the fanbase, not a crossover signal. Treat the $3.6M as most of the run, but this is still a strong result and a good theatre average for this one-weekend only event.
SIX: The Musical Live!
$3,000,000 on 1,462 screens for Focus, and the interesting number is buried in the dailies: -14% Saturday to Sunday, the smallest Sunday drop in the top twenty. Stage musicals capture Sunday matinees, it seems. Deadline had it playing best in Canada, Orlando, New York and Los Angeles. While it’s no Hadestown, it’s still a fine result.
Taken together with Katseye, this was the weekend event programming quietly did real business: $6.6M across two one-off captures on 2,186 combined screens, more than The Brink of War and The Rivals of Amziah King put together on nearly 500 fewer sites. Neither will hold, and neither is supposed to. Exhibitors are increasingly using this lane to fill the gaps a thin August slate leaves, and on this frame it worked.
The Brink of War
We had Angel Studios at $3–5M and it opened to $2,684,100. The audience that came was the one the film was built for: 48% of the crowd was over 55, the split was 60/40 male, and it handed back an A CinemaScore with a 61% definite recommend against a 71% Tomatometer. Angel titles run on that gap — the reviews rarely matter and the community bookings hold for weeks. This one fell -20% on Saturday, which is the number arguing against long legs.
Down the chart, the best number of the weekend on any per-screen measure belongs to Mubi. Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma expanded to 54 sites and did $907,200, a $16,800 average more than double anything else in the top twenty, with sold-out shows reported across fifteen markets. Ten days in it stands at $1,156,806. We’ll see if it can expand from here.
Shkoka’s Vishwanath & Sons opened to $1,760,000 on 350 screens for a $5,029 average and tenth place, a stronger start than anything else outside the wide releases. The Rivals of Amziah King took $1,027,000 on 632 for Black Bear on an 89% Tomatometer, and Neon’s The Wrong Girls managed $406,482 on 520 with the worst Saturday and Sunday holds in the top twenty, -37% and -38%. One Night Only fell -64% in its second weekend to $2,000,000 and $9.86M; that date is over.
The frame itself was the biggest 33rd weekend of the year since the pandemic. All titles grossed an estimated $158M, ahead of the same weekend in 2024 when Alien: Romulus opened to $42M and everything totalled $140.4M. Summer stands at $4.2 billion, 24% up on last year and 3% behind the record 2013 season, with the year at $6.86 billion, 19% ahead of 2025 and 7% behind 2019.
Looking ahead: Insidious: Out of the Further opens August 21 into a chart with no horror on it and Brand New Day finally softening. $20M is the floor and $30M is live — the franchise has not opened under $29M since the first film in 2011.