Brand New Day needs $42.4M to take #2 all-time from Endgame by Sunday; Insidious opens into a chart with no horror on it

Spider-Man: Brand New Day stands at $803,929,225 through Tuesday, which is already fourth on the all-time domestic list, and Spider-Man: No Way Home’s $814,811,535 falls today or tomorrow. That leaves Avengers: Endgame at $858,373,000 and Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $936,662,225, and one of those could be going down as soon as this weekend.

Monday and Tuesday saw declines of -55% and -51% week over week, pretty even with the -51% third weekend drop. Looking at comps, Endgame went -52.7% into $29,973,505 in its fourth frame and Force Awakens went -53.1% into $42,353,785, and Brand New Day has been running a shade ahead of that curve so far. We’re expecting its smallest drop so far, somewhere between -40% to -50%, which puts us at $35–42M, close to jumping above Endgame’s total on the high end of that.

$42M is doing double duty this weekend, because Force Awakens’ $42,353,785 is also the fourth-biggest fourth weekend of all time. Above it sit Avatar’s $50,306,217, Avatar: The Way of Water’s $45,838,986 and Top Gun: Maverick’s $44,655,075. This is a film that already owns the biggest opening weekend, the biggest opening day and the biggest preview night ever recorded; a top-five fourth weekend is just icing on the cake.

Our model moved its prediction to $906.9M–$981.8M with a $944.9M midpoint on 2.62x legs, and we are willing to go a step further than the model here: it feels basically locked in that Brand New Day takes the all-time domestic crown, finishing north of $950 million. The pacing has been ahead of the record the whole way, with Force Awakens sitting at $758,198,252 through its own nineteenth day, which puts Brand New Day $45.7 million clear at the identical point in the run. Force Awakens spent its second and third weekends inside the Christmas and New Year corridors, gaining back ground on Brand New Day but not enough to retake the lead. Even a $35M weekend here still leaves Brand New Day around $38M ahead, and we don’t see Force Awakens catching up. We have the two tracked side by side on our Brand New Day vs The Force Awakens comparison, and the shape of it puts $936,662,225 falling in the back half of September.

$1 billion is the call we are not making yet, and at this point it’ll likely fall short of that. Worldwide is $2.04 billion, eighth all time, with Avengers: Infinity War at $2,052,000,000 and Force Awakens at $2,068,223,624 both inside a single weekend’s global take, so by Sunday this is a top-six worldwide release and a top-three domestic one, twenty-four days in.

The trades have Insidious: Out of the Further at $23–28M, Variety has it at $25M, and Boxoffice Pro revised its own long-range up to $26–34M on Tuesday. We are calling $24–28M, which takes the top half of the trade band without following Boxoffice Pro out to its ceiling. The reason to sit up there rather than in the middle is the one number nobody had a month ago, a 61% Tomatometer on 56 reviews, which is the best this series has scored since the 2010 original’s 66%, ahead of Insidious: The Red Door at 59%, Insidious: Chapter 2 at 38% and Insidious: The Last Key at 34%. Horror sequels rarely get graded on reviews at the opening line, but they do get graded on whether the last one burned the audience, and this one arrives with critics saying it did not.

It is also walking into the strongest horror market in years. 2026 has produced just over a billion dollars of domestic horror business across twenty-two releases, led by Obsession, which opened to $17,196,855 in May and legged an absurd 15.3x to $263,451,715 domestic and $495.7M worldwide on a $15M budget, the kind of run the genre turns out about once a decade. Behind it, Backrooms opened to $81,402,424 on the way to $197,516,044, Scream 7 opened to $63,615,172 and finished $121,935,967, Scary Movie 6 took $108,277,762 off a $54,336,626 start, and even the mid-tier entries cleared their costs comfortably, with Evil Dead Burn at $32.2M and Lee Cronin’s The Mummy at $29.1M off openings in the $13M range. What that year has not had recently is anything actually playing, since no horror title has been inside the top ten since Evil Dead Burn finished eighth on the August 2 frame, which means an audience that has turned out for everything 2026 has put in front of it has been sitting on its hands for three straight weekends. At $26M this opens bigger than every 2026 horror release except Backrooms, Scream 7 and Scary Movie 6, and at $33,013,036 it passes The Red Door for the second-biggest opening in franchise history, which is the mark worth watching on Friday night.

On $18 million against roughly 3,000 sites the theatrical run turns profitable somewhere around the second weekend whatever the multiplier does after that, and the multiplier is unlikely to be generous. The Red Door dropped -60.6% in weekend two and legged 2.49x to $82.2M, while The Last Key dropped -58.0% and legged 2.29x to $67.7M. Put a $28M opening through those legs and you land at $65–70M domestic, which for this series is a completely normal outcome and, on this budget, a very good one.

The Odyssey is at $512,804,585 through Tuesday and the domestic markers fall in a row from here, with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker’s $515,202,542 going today and Rogue One at $532,200,000 and The Dark Knight at $533,345,358 both going on Saturday. The second of those carries the weight, because it makes this Christopher Nolan’s biggest domestic release, eighteen years after the film that has held the spot for him. We had a -40% fifth weekend penciled in last Wednesday and it held -26% instead, so the weekday reads are the better guide now, and Monday and Tuesday came in at -29% and -28% against last week, tighter than the weekend itself was.

Worldwide is where the bigger record sits, because $1.30 billion through last weekend’s international reporting leaves it roughly $38 million short of Deadpool & Wolverine’s $1.338 billion, which has been the biggest R-rated release of all time since 2024, and a sixth weekend of any shape takes it. By Sunday night a 172-minute R-rated Homer adaptation is the highest-grossing R-rated release ever made, and we have it going on to $1.6 billion or better before it is done.

Domestically those same two films finish the other way round, which is the more interesting half of the story. The Odyssey already sits second on the all-time R-rated domestic list at $512,804,585, well ahead of The Passion of the Christ’s $370,274,604, and $600M is genuinely live from here: weekend drops of -27%, -43%, -38% and -26% describe a curve that reaches it in late September, and our model’s inner band already runs to $609M. That leaves Deadpool & Wolverine’s $636,745,858 as the only R-rated release ahead of it domestically, which is the same film whose worldwide crown it takes this weekend. We expect another -25% to -30% drop for $16–18M, a shade under the trades given that five wide releases are opening into these screens and another theater cut is coming after last week’s 386, and we expect the legs to keep behaving this way deep into September, because nothing between now and Labor Day is aimed at this audience and IMAX has not let go of the title.

The franchise has run this exact test twice and got the same answer both times, with PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie falling -50.2% in its second weekend to $11,330,072 and PAW Patrol: The Movie falling -49.4% to $6,656,341, and the 2021 film did that on the August 20–22 frame, the same calendar slot PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie is dropping into now, which puts par at around $10.1M. The case for better than par is the A CinemaScore, the 96% audience score and the fact that nothing family-facing opens against it; the case for worse is that another chunk of the country goes back to school this week, and this is the audience that feels that first.

The model wants $72.0M–$80.0M on 3.71x legs, which is asking for a lot more than Mighty Movie’s 2.87x delivered off a bigger start. A -45% hold this weekend keeps that alive; a -52% points at $60–65M instead. None of it is the real story on this title anyway, because $48.5 million is already banked across roughly thirty overseas territories against $24.0M domestic. $150M worldwide is the number this movie is actually chasing, and it is comfortably on that line.

The End of Oak Street opened at $21,010,488 and now has to show that the number was a floor rather than a ceiling, and the shape of that opening weekend argues for the second reading. Friday did $7,929,394 and Saturday came back at $7,377,756, a 7% decline on the day a wide PG-13 release is supposed to build, and while PAW Patrol was flat across the same two days, Oak Street was the only title in the top five that actually shed audience. Put that alongside a B CinemaScore and a 78% audience score against an 86% Tomatometer and the read is word of mouth rather than scheduling, which points at a hold in the low -50s rather than the -40s a genuinely well-liked August original would produce.

Call it $10M and about $42M through ten days. The model still carries $50.2M–$58.2M on 2.58x legs from the opening-weekend baseline, and a -50% weekend keeps the bottom of that inner band intact while quietly ending the argument about the top of it. On an $85M net budget with $26.0M already banked internationally and China, Japan and Germany still ahead of it, $50M domestic and $130–150M worldwide is the outcome that keeps this from becoming a real problem for Warner Bros., which is a long way from the blockbuster the studio wanted and a long way from the disaster the tracking implied a month ago.

Jason Statham has two gears at this budget and Mutiny is landing in the lower one. The Beekeeper opened to $16.6M and finished $66.2M domestic and $162.6M worldwide on the same $40M, and A Working Man opened to $15.5M on the way to $37.0M and $89M, but both of those were January and March plays with a clear lane in front of them. The closer structural match is Wrath of Man, which opened to $8.1M and did most of its $104M worldwide overseas, and a 47% Tomatometer on 34 reviews puts this in that second group rather than the first.

Roughly 2,700 sites is a soft wide release even on a five-opener weekend, and it is landing in the last full frame before Labor Day with a $360M-opening superhero movie still holding the premium screens. Boxoffice Pro’s long-range had $8–12M and Box Office Theory has come down to $5–8.5M this week, and we are lower still at $4–7M, because a 47% Tomatometer, a soft theater count and the busiest opener slate of the month is not a combination that produces double digits. On $40M that means the international run and the platform sale have to carry it, and for a sense of how far the floor drops in this corner of the market, The Furious opened to $2.8M in June and finished $6.5M.

Jon Lucas and Scott Moore wrote and directed Bad Moms, which opened to $23.8M in July 2016 and legged 4.76x to $113.3M on a $20M budget off an A- CinemaScore, and that is the comparison every writeup of Spa Weekend is going to reach for, but it is the wrong one. Bad Moms was a mid-summer STX release with a full studio campaign behind it and a genuine hole in the calendar to open into, where this is a different beast entirely: a late-August drop from Black Bear, a distributor that has not opened a film above $3 million all year. In the Grey opened to $2,926,879 on a $60M budget and finished $5.7M, and The Rivals of Amziah King managed $1,024,646 on 632 sites last weekend. Boxoffice Pro has $5–7M and we are under it at $4–6M. What makes this worth watching past Friday is that it is the only comedy going wide this month, and adult-female comedies are the format that most reliably outruns an opening, so an A- on Friday night and a 4x multiplier turns $5M into a $20M finish and a profitable movie.

The best number on last weekend’s chart did not belong to a wide release at all. Tony went from six sites to thirty-seven and took $706,676, up 102% week over week, for a $19,099 per-theater average that beat everything on the board, including the $16,800 Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma managed on 54 screens. A24 breaks it wide on Friday behind a 94% Tomatometer, a 92% audience score and a 75 Metacritic. Boxoffice Pro is at $7–10M, which we read as the ceiling rather than the call, because platform titles almost always give a chunk of that average back the moment they hit a thousand screens and this is a biography with no franchise behind it. $4–7M is the range, and the multiplier after it is where a film like this makes its money.